situation politique argentine 2019

For legislative positions elections are every two years, and for the executive power and governors every 4. Policy Response: The president-elect has said he’s seeking a social pact, though the details have been scarce. Kirchner was a senator in 2018 and voted favor of legalising abortion. Son long recul face au dollar s'est brutalement accéléré depuis le début de l'année (plus de 53 % de baisse), et il a enregistré jeudi sa plus forte dépréciation en une seule journée(-13,52 %). Fernandez can also avoid a run-off if he wins with 40% with a lead of at least 10 percentage points over his closest challengers. Elle oppose Nicolás Maduro, président élu en 2013 et réélu en 2018 lors d'élections contestées et auxquelles l'opposition traditionnelle n'a pas participé, et Juan Guaidó président de l'Assemblée nationale [3] depuis le 5 janvier 2019. Like the social programs of Argentina’s past, Fernandez is expected to fix prices for gas and electric, and may go further by granting salary hikes and social security payment increases, according to a person familiar with the plan. Publié le 12/01/2019 à 12h45. Problem: Argentina faces three big dollar-denominated debt payments in the next few months -- $1 billion in December, $900 million in January, and $450 million to the IMF in February. In the August primaries, Fernandez snapped up 49.5 percent of the vote, compared to just 33 percent for Macri. The cuts incited thousands to protest. } They have dressed as Eva Péron, Argentina’s iconic former first lady, to commemorate the suffragette movement anniversary and put a spotlight on a feminist agenda. While, the Front of All candidate for governor of Buenos Aires' province, one of the most important of the country and key for general elections, also won with over 10 points over Macri’s candidate Maria Eugenia Vidal. With 87% of polling station results counted, Macri's center-left rival Alberto Fernandez led with 47.5% of the vote, followed by Macri, who garnered a little more than 32%. Argentina's next presidential and national elections are in October 2019, making Argentine president Mauricio Macri's commitment to austerity potentially very costly. Having signed a US$50 billion standby financing deal with the IMF in June 2018, the slide in the peso prompted Macri’s administration to pledge deeper spending cuts to secure an early release of funds. Problem: As the recession entered its second year, Argentina’s poverty rate climbed to 35.4% in the first half of 2019 from 27.3% a year earlier. document.cookie = "__adblocker=; expires=Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 GMT; path=/"; Caractéristique négative : le marché du peso est très peu liquide, et tout ordre de vente, même de taille modeste, suffit à faire plonger la devise argentine. Policy Response: More of the same. Le contexte politique actuel En octobre 2019, Alberto Fernández a été élu président de l'Argentine (avec 48,24% des voix), tandis que Mauricio Macri - qui a exercé ses fonctions entre 2015 et 2019 et s'est porté candidat à la réélection - est arrivé deuxième avec 40,28% des voix. The Moyanos described these talks “as a first step after many years of distance from Cristina to explore the possibility of unifying Peronism to come back to power.”. d.setTime(d.getTime() + 60 * 60 * 24 * 2 * 1000); Read More: Slow Tease of Argentina’s New Cabinet Sets Investors on Edge. (function(src){var a=document.createElement("script");a.type="text/javascript";a.async=true;a.src=src;var b=document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];b.parentNode.insertBefore(a,b)})("//"); Argentina is a federal constitutional republic. “There will have to be some fiscal space to kick-start the economy,” said Hector Torres, Geneva-based senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation. In May 2018, a survey of more than 1,000 people by Argentine pollsters D'Alessio Irol/Berensztein revealed that 75 percent of respondents felt seeking assistance from the Washington, DC-based IMF was problematic. While currency controls imposed at the start of September have slowed the decline in the country’s peso, they have also led to a resurgence in an alternative exchange rate based on the difference between local shares in pesos and the same foreign-traded shares in dollars. Argentina Central Bank Seen Seeking Weak Peso Under Fernandez. The move helped presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez, a former cabinet chief, and vice presidential candidate Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, widen their appeal to centrist voters. script.setAttribute("onerror", "setNptTechAdblockerCookie(true);"); Problem: Argentina’s international reserves have plummeted by $23 billion since Fernandez became favorite to win last month’s election in August. #ga-ad {display: none;} Le scrutin se tient en même temps que les élections législatives et sénatoriales. Problem: Argentina’s annual inflation rate has remained above 50% for the past nine months. Sur le plan régional, l’Argentine est confrontée depuis plusieurs années à un panorama instable, marqué par la crise politique au Venezuela (près de 150 000 Vénézuéliens se sont installés en Argentine), ainsi que la crise politique en Bolivie et les crises sociales qui se sont développées en 2019 … Consultez l’ensemble des articles, reportages, directs, photos et vidéos de la rubrique Argentine publiés le lundi 28 décembre 2020. Argentina’s budget deficit is expected to be 0.5% of GDP by the end of 2019, narrower than the 2.3% deficit in 2018, according to the Economy Ministry. The peso, high inflation and high-interest rates will be enough of an example unless the peso turns the corner. Subscribe via Apple Podcast, Spotify or Pocket Cast. Argentine savers withdraw their dollars from banks amid financial turbulence. 31-10-2019 16:47:08 ZULU. Site officiel de la direction générale du Trésor. This case is based on eight diaries written by a chauffeur of a former top official under Kirchner’s Ministry of Federal Planning, including details on numerous pick-ups and deliveries of bags with millions of dollars in alleged kickbacks, even to the residences of the Kirchners. Argentines had their first chance on 11 August 2019 to head to the ballot boxes in a high-stakes presidential primary race in which they must choose between staying the course of painful austerity measures or a return to interventionist economics.  When Alberto Fernandez takes over the Argentine presidency on Dec. 10 he will inherit an economy running short of dollars, with rampant inflation and rising poverty. As Argentina went to the polls, the economy topped the agenda of voter concerns in a country that has slid into a recession. En 2019, les importations ont diminué en raison de la dépréciation de la monnaie et de la faiblesse de la demande intérieure. That so-called blue-chip swap rate is currently above 74 pesos per dollar, while the official rate hovers around 60 per dollar. Don’t expect him to ask Argentines to tone down their expectations though. These seven charts illustrate the dire state of the economy and the policy solutions Fernandez is likely to pursue. document.cookie = "__adblocker=" + (adblocker ? Former Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernández of Frente de Todos defeated incumbent president Mauricio Macri of Juntos por el Cambio, exceeding the threshold to win the presidency in a single round. Argentine leader Mauricio Macri claims he needs to carry out such measures to regain investors’ confidence by reducing the country’s spending. Narrowing Gap Have a confidential tip for our reporters? While the pace of the decline in economic activity softened in July-August from Q2, it remained considerable. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) pledged its "full support" for Argentina on 31 august 2018 as the country sought to overcome an ongoing economic crisis that has prompted a world-record interest rate hike and seen the value of the peso plunge to a record low against the dollar. Policy Response: While Macri’s administration projected a 1% budget surplus for 2020, Fernandez’s social spending proposals could wipe out that surplus in the blink of an eye. Policy Response: Fernandez has pointed toward a debt re-profiling plan that mirrors Uruguay’s restructuring in 2003, which pushed out maturities with a minimal loss in value to creditors. Labor unions and social groups blocked streets in downtown Buenos Aires on 12 September 2018 to protest austerity measures proposed by the government and backed by the International Monetary Fund to reduce Argentina’s debt. }, Page last modified: His biggest rival, centre-left Peronist candidate, Alberto Fernandez, hoping to ride on the green scarf wave, has said he is in favour of legalising abortion in the long term. As the candidates needed 45 percent of the vote to avoid a second round, the 47 percent obtained by the Fernandez-Fernandez ticket was enough to give them the win. Problem: Argentina’s chaotic exchange rate market. Argentina Moves Toward Legal Abortion Amid Push for Women’s Rights. For the moment, investors and Argentines have been left on tenterhooks. D’un côté du champ de bataille, le secteur agraire, qui naît avec la colonisation du pays. Party primaries are closely watched in Argentina because they are held simultaneously and voting is obligatory, so they are seen as referendum on candidates' popularity - effectively an early poll involving the entire electorate , since the country’s main political parties have already chosen their nominees. Polls indicate the Fernandez-Kirchner ticket lead has since grown. General elections were held in Argentina on 27 October 2019, to elect the president of Argentina, members of the national congress and the governors of most provinces. With a recession of 2.5 percent in 2018, a 53.5 percent inflation rate in September 2019, and an official unemployment rate of 10.6 percent, incumbent Macri is in serious trouble in the presidential race. “Fernandez and his team believe in government intervention,” said Alejo Costa, chief strategist at BTG Pactual Argentina. But during her tenure as Argentina’s president, from 2007 to 2015, she refused to open the debate. The country's main political parties had already chosen their nominees, so the primary election, known locally as the PASO, served as the first concrete measure of voter sentiment. Policy Response: The lack of dollars means Fernandez will probably have to renegotiate a $56 billion loan accord with the IMF, which he partly blames for the economic crisis. While gross reserves total $44 billion, analysts estimate net reserves are between $10 billion and $12.5 billion. Argentina has trimmed its budget deficit throughout Macri's administration. script.setAttribute("src", "//"); Argentina’s budget deficit is expected to be 0.5% of GDP by the end of 2019, narrower than the 2.3% deficit in 2018, according to the Economy Ministry. — With assistance by Aline Oyamada, Patrick Gillespie, and Ignacio Olivera Doll, New president to inherit stagflation, dollar shortage, Crisis, campaign promises to bolster government intervention. Le 9 avril 2019, le FMI a estimé que « les risques à la baisse pour l’économie restent considérables »: elle se contractera de 1,2 % en 2019 et la récession se prolongera jusqu’en 2020. “Fernandez has hinted in the past that his plans for boosting consumption could involve raising public salaries and benefits, which is something that could have a significant fiscal impact,” said Adriana Dupita, Latin America economist with Bloomberg Economics. Alberto Fernandez, allié à l’ex-presidente Cristina Kirchner, a été élu dimanche 27 octobre à la tête de l’Argentine, mettant fin à une parenthèse libérale de 4 ans. Toute l’actualité sur le sujet Argentine. En 2019, le produit intérieur brut argentin chute de 7,7% par rapport à l'année précédente, à 478 milliards de dollars, selon les estimations du FMI. Explore what’s moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. People line up outside of a currency exchange house in Buenos Aires on Oct. 25. var setNptTechAdblockerCookie = function(adblocker) { Policy Response: To keep dollars in the economy, Fernandez is expected to raise taxes on agricultural exports, a policy that was championed by his running mate, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, during her term in the presidency. The Fund has said it will withhold its next disbursement until there’s more clarity around the administration’s economic plan. But to do that, he would need to renegotiate contracts with utility providers, removing the automatic link to the exchange rate, Torres said. La crise présidentielle [2] au Venezuela est une crise politique autour de la légitimité de la présidence du pays depuis le 10 janvier 2019. They are promises that are likely to push into ever-increasing state intervention and controls that many blame for the crisis in the first place. Polls show that Fernandez and his running mate, ex-president Cristina Kirchner, is very likely to obtain the 45 percent of votes needed to secure an outright victory in the first round. 10/12/2020 - 06:55 L'Italie, l'Argentine et l'Espagne font la Une de la presse internationale En Italie, la presse s'interroge sur le premier cas de Covid qui daterait de novembre 2019. The context of the talks with the IMF was summarized by Bloomberg on 02 September 2018: “Macri is in a pinch to please investors by cutting spending, while ensuring that the belt-tightening austerity doesn’t cause social upheaval ahead of next year’s election.”. Le solde des administrations publiques en Argentine représentait -2,3% du PIB en 2019 et devrait atteindre -0,7% en 2020 et -1,2% en 2021. var d = new Date(); A relative moderate, Massa took third in Argentina's last presidential contest in 2015. Alberto Fernandez, le candidat de gauche de la coalition « Frente de Todos » et sa partenaire, l’ancienne présidente Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (2007-2015), ont remporté les élections présidentielles du 27 octobre 2019. In May, a survey of more than 1,000 people by Argentine pollsters D'Alessio Irol/Berensztein revealed that 75 percent of respondents felt seeking assistance from the Washington, DC-based IMF was problematic. Argentina Economic Outlook. @media only screen and (min-device-width : 320px) and (max-device-width : 480px) { "true" : "false") + "; expires=" + d.toUTCString() + "; path=/"; Coronavirus : en Argentine, coup de massue pour une économie à l’agonie La quarantaine obligatoire a été décrétée dans le pays, qui traverse une grave crise économique et sociale depuis 2018 If Fernandez were to obtain such a result in October's presidential election, he would become president, as Argentina's electoral law dictates that 45% is enough for an outright victory, avoiding a run-off. Kirchner herself appeared twice in court and has had her apartments searched. 2019 Argentine general election; Elections in Argentina have been regular since the reinstitution of democracy in 1983. He’ll need to strike a deal with bondholders before the large payments come due in the second quarter of 2020. La pandémie du nouveau coronavirus a fait au moins 1.775.272 morts dans le monde depuis que le bureau de l'OMS en Chine a fait état de l'apparition de la maladie fin décembre 2019… L'Argentine, ce pays de 44 millions d'habitants, cinq fois la taille de la France, est de nouveau en crise. Consultez les derniers articles du Point sur le pays : Argentine et restez informés en suivant l'actualité sur le site Le Un pendule dont le mouvement éclaire l’élection de M. Macri, l’échec de sa politique économique et l’enjeu de l’élection présidentielle de 2019. Cela n'a pas entamé la popularité de l'idéologie d'extrême gauche qui continue de plomber l'avenir du pays. Et Mauricio Macri l'a payé cher. À l'issue d'un processus électoral chaotique marqué par plusieurs reports du scrutin présidentiel, Félix Tshisekedi est devenu en janvier 2019 le nouveau chef de l'Etat congolais, succédant à Joseph Kabila qui dirigeait la RDC (République démocratique du Congo) depuis 18 ans. Centrist former Finance Minister Roberto Lavagna came in at a distant third with just 8.3 %. The main ticket opposing Argentine President Mauricio Macri in elections scheduled for October struck a formal alliance on 12 June 2019 with Sergio Massa, a key centrist political figure. The move comes one day after center-right Macri chose a moderate Peronist candidate, Miguel Pichetto, as his running mate in a similar gesture toward centrist voters. The cuts were initiated as part of a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $56 billion (€50 billion) package of emergency loans. Much of Argentina came to a standstill on 29 May 2019 as opponents of President Mauricio Macri launched a 24-hour strike to protest government austerity measures in response to inflation that has reached 55 percent over the past year. November 10, 2020. Fernandez has pledged to revive Argentina’s economy and ditch austerity, while trying to re-negotiate a loan deal with the International Monetary Fund. With almost 90 percent of votes counted, Argentinian opposition progressive ticket Alberto Fernandez and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner won over right-wing incumbent President Mauricio Macri with 47,75 over 40,76 percent respectively in the general elections. Argentine : la crise politique panique la Bourse et le peso. En 2000, le peso était à parité avec le dollar. 20:13 30.10.2019 (mis à jour 10:38 18 ... éternelle force politique en Argentine? L’économie argentine est d'ailleurs de nouveau entrée en récession en 2019. var script = document.createElement("script"); Infection pulmonaire – Coronavirus Covid-19 (24/12/2020) Le 11 mars, l’OMS a qualifié de « pandémie » l’épidémie de coronavirus Covid-19 (voir liste des pays concernés et chiffres sur le site du Centre européen de prévention et de contrôle des maladies).. A la date du 24 décembre, la situation sanitaire en Argentine est contrastée. Des élections marquées par une confirmation de la bipolarisation politique et sociale du pays, dans un contexte de crise économique à laquelle les deux principaux candidats voyaient des … The country held midterm elections in October 2017 for one-third of the Senate and one-half of the Chamber of Deputies. Le président Maurio Macri a fait le pari de l'amélioration de la situation économique en signant un accord avec le FMI. Fernandez will maintain the controls to prevent people from dollarizing their savings or taking money out of the country. Similarly, consumer confidence remained downbeat in Q3, pointing to constrained household spending. En 2019, les importations ont diminué en raison de la dépréciation de la monnaie et de la faiblesse de la demande intérieure. Macri saw his approval rating fall below 40% in mid-2018 as his government embraced IMF austerity. Photographer: Anita Pouchard Serra/Bloomberg. Mauricio Macri won election to the presidency in 2015 in multiparty elections the media and various nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) described as generally free and fair. The unemployment rate rose to 10.6% in the second quarter. The second quarter looks even more complicated. Premier choc en 2018 : un changement de politique monétaire aux États-Unis bouscule les économies émergentes mais l'Argentine, plus vulnérable, plonge plus vite que d'autres. Huitième pays du monde par sa superficie (2,8 M km², soit plus de 5 fois la France), l’Argentine représente la 4 e plus grande population d’Amérique Latine (40 M d’habitants selon le recensement de 2010, après 37 M recensés en 2001), derrière le Brésil, le Mexique et la Colombie. Legacy: One positive trend Fernandez will inherit is a narrowing primary fiscal deficit. L'Argentine, autrefois riche a été détruite par le péronisme. Macri's popularity had fallen in recent months before elections in October, when he will seek a second term. The economy had taken center stage with the country in the grip of recession for most of the past year, the outlook for growth darkening, annual inflation over 50 percent, job numbers down and poverty up sharply. Argentina's outstanding loans, T-bills and government bonds denominated in foreign currency*. University teachers were on strike for three weeks demanding higher wages until over half of the universities reached an agreement with the government. Consumer prices surged by the most in a year ahead of the elections, rising 5.9% in September from the month before. The green handkerchief wave has proved that many female and young voters remain concerned about reproductive rights even if some of their politicians would rather steer clear of the acrimonious debates the issue sparks in Argentina. Argentines sent a resounding message of rejection of Macri's handling of the country's economy. In the thick of the campaign season, Argentine women have donned green handkerchiefs, a symbol of the country’s abortion rights movement. L’élection présidentielle argentine de 2019 (Elecciones presidenciales de Argentina de 2019) se tient le 27 octobre 2019 afin d'élire le président et le vice-président de l'Argentine pour un mandat de quatre ans. The conservative incumbent won backers with plans to reform Argentina's notoriously closed economy with trade deals and a successful push to lure foreign investment into energy projects and infrastructure. Policy Response: Fernandez is likely to re-install utility subsidies to ease the cost of living for the poor. The corruption case known as “Notebook-gate” had become the front line of the government’s political offensive against ex-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who was leading the polls ahead of the 2019 elections. script.setAttribute("async", true); It would not take a hard-core Peronist to sell a narrative that Argentina’s new pro-business elites in government failed both the working and middle classes. “So we expect a return to subsidized loans for small and medium enterprises, lower interest rates, and maintaining certain subsidies and social transfers.”. “I think that could come from the IMF.”. Argentina is a federal constitutional republic. However, Fernández de Kirchner responded by approaching Hugo and Pablo Moyano, who lead the Truckers’ Union, as well as a large faction of the main trade-union central CGT, and the Multisector F21 movement (MF21). The enormous corruption network revealed pushed the Peronist factions led by Senator Miguel Angel Pichetto and former presidential candidate Sergio Massa further away from Kirchnerism. Le contexte politique actuel En octobre 2019, Alberto Fernández a été élu président de l'Argentine (avec 48,24% des voix), tandis que Mauricio Macri - qui a exercé ses fonctions entre 2015 et 2019 et s'est porté candidat à la réélection - est arrivé deuxième avec 40,28% des voix. Il en est aujourd'hui à plus de 95 % de dévaluation vis-à-vis du billet vert. Conservative, pro-business President Mauricio Macri, who’s running for a second term, could not risk alienating his traditional support base by bringing up the issue. Creditors are forming negotiation committees, but with bonds trading around 40 cents on the dollar, they’re signaling their expectations are low. Le solde des administrations publiques en Argentine représentait -2,3% du PIB en 2019 et devrait atteindre -0,7% en 2020 et -1,2% en 2021. Voici un vaste tableau de la situation en Argentine à l’issue des élections du 27 octobre 2019. He has yet to detail his economic plan and won’t announce his cabinet until Friday, five weeks after being elected. document.getElementsByTagName("head")[0].appendChild(script); Because it is a “federal” republic Argentina has national, provincial, municipal and Ciudad de Buenos Aires elections. He’s also expected to expand price freezes on basic foodstuffs implemented by the current President Mauricio Macri. Voters also chose presidential candidates, along with deputies, senators, governors and local leaders. Argentina - 2019 Election. Kirchner’s vice-president, Amado Boudou, was sentenced in August 2018 to six years in prison in a different corruption case, while the “Notebook-gate” scandal that began on 01 August 2018 had already involved 26 arrests, 17 plea bargains, 70 raids and 52 subpoenas. The imposition of currency controls slowed the flight of dollars out of the country, but not stopped it. L’Argentine n’est pas un pays mais un pendule, estime-t-il. The economic situation remained dire in Q3, after GDP collapsed in Q2. He may even tighten the controls further to mirror those in place from 2011 to 2015, which restricted companies from sending wire transfers abroad, placing impediments on imports, Costa said. Problem: Argentines have yanked more than $13.6 billion from bank accounts since August, or 42% of the total, according to central bank data. ... qui embrasse tout le spectre politique, de la droite jusqu'à la gauche, et qui peine à se mettre d'accord sur un candidat unique. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. AstraZeneca-Oxford Covid Vaccine Gains First Clearance With U.K. Nod, U.S. Vaccinations at 200,000 a Day Run Far Short of ‘Warp Speed’, Covid Variant in U.S.; Biden to Speed Vaccinations: Virus Update, U.S. Stocks Drop After Hope Fades for Expanded Aid: Markets Wrap, U.S. Stocks Set for a Rebound, Dollar Weakens: Markets Wrap. Argentine: élections 2019 Les élections présidentielles et législatives de 2019 doivent ou non confirmer le virage conservateur de 2015.

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